Mission Shakti should be seen more as a global pre-emptive strike than a political ploy

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The ASAT test is important in the light of ongoing moves to commandeer an NPT-like outer space treaty by Russia and China to keep the space club exclusive domain

Coming just two weeks ahead of the general elections, political opponents and sections of the general populace alike are questioning the timing of the announcement of Mission Shakti by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday.

But in reality, Modi may have been aiming to kill two birds with one stone in the process catching some collateral gains while the actual motivation for the rather “theatrical” announcement comes from elsewhere.

Exclusive Club

India’s ASAT test to prove it is now part of the exclusive club of space powers, came just hours after the declaration by the US Vice President Mike Pence that the US is in a space race with Russia and China.

To press home the point, he went on to add General John Raymond, commander of the AFSPC, had been nominated to head the proposed US Space Command towards creating the US Space Force, the 6th arm of the US military announced June last year by President Trump. The U.S. Space Force would be the first new military service in more than 70 years, following the establishment of the U.S. Air Force in 1947.

India’s ASAT test to prove it is now part of the exclusive club of space powers, came just hours after the declaration by the US Vice President Mike Pence that the US is in a space race with Russia and China.

Russia-China Impact

While Russia has been a rival to the US since the cold-war era, acceptance of China’s emergence as a prime rival in space is a new element. 

India may not state it in as many words, but China, once again is a clear reference point in most of its space endeavours of the military kind. 

China was the first to demonstrate its capability to destroy a satellite way back in February 2007 when it shot down one of its defunct weather satellites using an SC-19 ASAT missile at an altitude of about 865 km and a mass of about 750 kg.

While the US had been testing such a capability for several years it was only in January 2008 that it publicly reporting shooting down one its own satellites, a defunct 450 kg spacecraft purportedly because it was set for re-entry into the atmosphere with a fuel payload of toxic hydrazine that could be hazardous to humans. 

It was not until 2015 that Russia followed suit successfully testing its direct ascent anti-satellite missile PL-19 Nudol. It has reportedly been perfecting the capability almost once every year thereafter including some missiles carried by fighter jets.

Apart from the moves by the US to kick off its Space Force, India’s entry into the exclusive Space Club also comes in the backdrop of several attempts by multilateral bodies and countries to regulate use of space for military purposes.

Even as Prime Minister Modi was announcing to the nation of its achievement, a Group of Governmental Experts (GGE), formed by the UN Secretary General as per a UNGA resolution, was meeting in Geneva to consider and make recommendations for an international legally binding instrument on the prevention of an arms race in outer space, including the prevention of placement of weapons in outer space.  Participating by invitation a total of 25 countries will be thrashing out a draft global treaty.

Russia and China have proposed a total ban on tests of anti-satellite weapons apart from placement of such weapons and use of threat or force against outer space objects at the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD).

Notwithstanding the fact that discussions on these lines have been on since the 1960s, it is worth noting these two meetings of the GGE are happening primarily at the behest of Russia and China.

Haves and Have-nots

While, the capability for space weapons itself had been developed and tested in several ways in the past by India, that it has now openly demonstrated so emanates from a concern of being locked out of the Space Club if such international treaties are in place, something akin to the NPT which has divided the world into nuclear-haves and nuclear-have nots.

India, Pakistan and North Korea are the only countries that refused to sign the 1968 NPT and went ahead with their own nuclear tests, thereby putting themselves on the wrong side of the five “nuclear-haves” and the 183 other “nuclear-have nots” that signed it.

Apart from the NPT, which is in force, there is also the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), ratified by 160 nations, except, interestingly, the US, china and Israel. Likewise, India, Pakistan and North Korea, also refused to conform to the CTBT which will not enter into force until these three countries sign it, and it is further ratified by thirteen additional nations, including China and the United States.

It is thus important for India puts itself at the forefront of the space race and be a part of the exclusive Space Club before its membership is locked by international treaties in-the-making like the proposed Prevention of an Arms Race in Space Treaty (PAROS).

Not surprisingly, hours after the announcement of the ASAT test by India, the External Affairs spokesperson said the country expects to play a role in drafting international laws on prevention of an arms race in outer space including the prevention of placing such weapons in space.

Significantly, the Russian Federation and China had introduced draft of such a treaty at the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD), under which the current discussions are taking place, in 2008 and further revised the drafts in 2014 they had proposed a total prohibition of testing and use of anti-satellite weapons apart from placement of weapons and use of threat or force against outer space objects.

If accepted this would have meant a stop to all such initiatives by any country limiting the Space Club to just three countries – the US, Russia and China.

Though the treaty is still work in progress, to give Prime Minister Modi the benefit of doubt, the ASAT test by India should perhaps be seen as a preemptive strike rather than a political ploy to gain brownie points and a second term by the party in power.

(This article first appeared on NewsPlus)