Can Intel break the ARM twist? Will have to rethink future

INTEL WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ARM TO HAVE A GRIP OVER THE MOBILE COMPUTING MARKET IN THE FUTURE

Earlier last month Intel unveiled a 3D (also know as Tri-Gate) chip ushering in what promises a radical shift in semiconductor layout since 40 years.

The chips are slated to begin rolling out by the end of this year will usher in Intel’s 22nm process technology. While the jury is still out whether the Tri-Gate will give They are also expected to give ARM a run for its money and enable Intel make inroads into the fast growing mobile device market.

Intel will start replacing its existing 32nm process with the 22nm technology towards the end of this year and expects the 14nm process to follow around 2014.

But will this be enough for Intel to break ARM’s stranglehold on the mobile device chip market? Unlikely says the Economist in an analysis in its latest edition. ARM’s dominance in this space has worried Intel for long. In fact it was way back in 2009 that Intel CTO Justin Ratner told expressed his concerns on taking on ARM for the mobile space. Speaking to this writer in an exclusive interview on the sidelines of the Research @ Intel Day, Ratner said the architecture war between Intel and ARM for the soul of the smartphone was a big one and rather brain racking. (‘It’s a battle against ARM for the smartphone’s soul’)

The reasons are not far to seek. ARM has a stranglehold on the mobile device market with an unassailable 96% market share replicating Intel’s hold over the PC market. Though Intel did make a play at the Mobile Internet Device (MID) markets with its Atom chip, the advent of the smartphone and more recently the tablet has sounded the netbook’s death knell.

According to a new market research report published by MarketsandMarkets the total global mobile handset market is expected to reach $341.4 billion by 2015. Smartphone sales are expected to account for 76% of the overall mobile handset revenue at $258.9 billion in the same year. Apple is expected to lead the growth till 2015 commanding largest share of the overall mobile handset revenue with 26 percent market share while Nokia will trail in second place with 21% market share.

Likewise, the global tablet market is estimated to be a $49 billion business by 2015 with iPad leading the race till then, according to research firm Strategy Analytics. The tablet computer market will become the third largest consumer electronics sector, after televisions and personal computers, the research firm said, forecasting 149 million units will be sold in 2015, growing eightfold from 2010.

And clearly ARM is expected to rule the roost, at least till 2015 and maybe even beyond.

It’s secret is the compact design, lower operating temperature and low power consumption of processors using its designs, something that Intel has struggled to achieve since the late 1990s. Open up any mobile phone, or for that matter any tablet, and you will find several ARM cores. For that matter the iPad2 has a pair of ARM cores that deliver 10 hours of battery life. According to some statistics three out of every five tablets now hitting store shelves use similar ARM processors.

Clearly, Intel with or without its 3D Tri Gate chips has its job cut out to break ARM’s grip on the mobile market.